vs. your forecasting spreadsheet
If your forecasting lives in a Google Sheet — ShipStation export pasted in, six-month trailing average computed, reorder when cover drops below six months — you're carrying more inventory than you need to and you're still missing seasonality. skubase fixes both, in under ten minutes.
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Why the spreadsheet is wrong
Holding 6 months of cover for an A-item with steady demand is statistically wasteful — that''s a 95th-percentile-plus stockout rule applied to SKUs that only need 30–60 days. The cash gap is real, and it compounds across every reorder cycle.
A 6-month moving average is half-blind on every Q4 ramp. skubase fits a Holt double-exponential model with a weekly seasonality factor, so a back-to-school SKU isn''t reordered like a steady-state one.
Your A-items deserve a 99% service level; your C-items don''t. skubase segments by ABC × XYZ and sets safety stock per class — the math the spreadsheet can''t do without becoming a part-time job.
If your spreadsheet doesn''t track which suppliers miss promised lead times, you''re carrying their failures as your stockouts. skubase scores every supplier on on-time, fill rate, and lead-time stability.
The Sheet shows you what you have. It does not propose a markdown plan, a bundle, a wholesale list, or a write-off. skubase does — with the dollar impact attached.
Side by side
| Metric | Your spreadsheet | skubase |
|---|---|---|
| Forecasting model | Trailing 6-month moving average | Holt double-exponential + weekly seasonality + stockout probability |
| Safety stock | Same buffer for every SKU | Service-level segmented by ABC × XYZ class |
| Reorder trigger | Cover < 6 months | Days-until-stockout < lead time + safety, ranked by $ impact |
| Supplier accuracy | Not tracked | On-time %, fill rate, lead-time stability, tiered |
| Bundle/kit logic | Manual decomposition | Auto-decomposes at reorder time |
| Dead stock action | None | Markdown / bundle / wholesale / write-off plans |
| Time to update | 30–60 minutes per week | Zero — recomputes when shipments land |
| Auditability | Whoever last touched it | Every recommended quantity explains itself |
How it works
We accept the standard Orders or Shipments CSV — SKU, quantity, ship date are all we need. ShipStation aggregates Shopify, Amazon, eBay, Walmart, and most other channels, so the import covers everywhere you sell.
Per-SKU 30 / 90 / 180-day shipped units. The number you''ve been eyeballing in the spreadsheet, computed correctly.
Skubase ranks every SKU into urgent reorders, overstock to draw down, and dead stock to liquidate. Work the queue; close the spreadsheet.
The spreadsheet was a heroic fix. skubase is the permanent one.